Norfolk population

The population of Norfolk and Waveney is growing.

Since 2011, Norfolk and Waveney's population has increased by an estimated 57,900 people to 1,032,700 The population is forecast to increase by a further 111,700 over the next 20 years. These estimations come from the office for national statistics census 2021.

Most of the population increase will be in the older age groups, with those aged 65 and above increasing by 93,900. Norfolk has the 15th most elderly population in England but is projected to drop to the 17th largest by 2040.

Visit the Norfolk Insight website for further information about the population in Norfolk.

Population by age group for males and females

Based on the 2021 census, 52% of the adult population is identified as female and 48% is identified as male. However, not all the population define themselves as male or female.

The 2021 census show that the population split by age grouping for males and females in Norfolk is:

Male:

• Males aged 18-24 years old: 35,324
• Males aged 25-34 years old: 53,250
• Males aged 35-44 years old: 51,091
• Males aged 45-54 years old: 58,241
• Males ages 55-64 years old: 60,952
• Males aged 65-74 years old: 55,983
• Males aged 75-84 years old: 36,212
• Males aged 85-89 years old: 8,122
• Males aged 90 years old and over: 3,796

Female:

• Females aged 18-24 years old: 34,889
• Females aged 25-34 years old: 54,576
• Females aged 35-44 years old: 52,216
• Females aged 45-54 years old: 60,237
• Females ages 55-64 years old: 64,178
• Females aged 65-74 years old: 60,417
• Females aged 75-84 years old: 40,489
• Females aged 85-89 years old: 11,294
• Females aged 90 years old and over: 7,447

Population predictions for Norfolk

In Norfolk, from 2020 to 2040 there will be an estimated:

• 36% increase in people aged over 65, mostly in those aged over 75 years of age
• 3% increase in people of working age
• 1% decrease in children and young people

This increase in older people means that by 2040 the non-working age population (those aged under 16 or over 65 years of age) will have increased by almost 91,500 whereas the working age population will have increased by just over 20,200.

This means that there will be fewer people of working age for every person under 16 or over 65 years of age. Planned increases in the state pension age will only partially offset this relative increase of pensioners.

Population predictions for the Norfolk districts

The 2021 census and the Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) estimates the population from 2021 to 2040 for each Norfolk district.

This is also compared to the 2011 census to show how the populations of people of a working and non-working age has changed.

This data highlights that North Norfolk had the highest percentage of people aged over 65 years of age (34%). However, Breckland and South Norfolk have the largest percentage increases in the population of 65 year olds and over with this group of the Norfolk population expected to increase by 44% from the 2021 position by 2040.

People aged 65 and over who need help with at least one domestic task

The health survey for England 2016: social care for older adults asked people aged 65 years and above if they needed help with at least one domestic task:

• Doing routine housework or laundry
• Shopping for food
• Getting out of the house
• Doing paperwork or paying bills

The prevalence rates from the survey have been applied to office for national statistics population projections of the 65 and over population to give estimated numbers predicted to need help with at least one task.

POPPI estimates the number of over 65 year olds to need help with at least one domestic task from 2020 to 2040 for each Norfolk district:

The majority of this support will be provided by unpaid carers (family or friends) and our reliance on unpaid carers will continue to increase.

It is estimated that around 11% of the people estimated as requiring support with at least one domestic task will have support needs that require support from home care services commissioned by the Council or by people as private funders.

Applying the dementia UK report estimates of population prevalence of late on set dementia and applying these to the 2021 population derived from the 2021 census, the number of people aged 60 years and above living in Norfolk with dementia was estimated to be 16,691 during 2021.

Diagnosis rate

In January 2022 NHS digital recorded 9,509 people in Norfolk diagnosed with dementia against an estimated prevalence of 17,104 people which is a diagnosis rate of 55.6%.

Stages of dementia

Research by the Alzheimer's Society (2020) and by Wittenberg (2019) estimate that the proportion of people with mild, moderate, and severe dementia is:

• Mild dementia: 14%
• Moderate dementia: 28%
• Severe dementia: 58%

This would mean that for Norfolk, of the 17,104 people estimated to have dementia in 2022:

• 9,920 people will have severe dementia
• 4,789 people will have moderate dementia
• 2,395 people will have mild dementia

This would suggest that the people diagnosed with dementia in Norfolk are those with severe symptoms.

Population predictions for Norfolk

The projecting older people population information system (POPPI) estimates that the number of people with dementia from 2020 to 2040 in Norfolk will be:

• 2020: 16,321 people with dementia
• 2025: 18, 200 people with dementia
• 2030: 20, 579 people with dementia
• 2035: 23, 073 people with dementia
• 2040: 25,269 people with dementia

This highlights that the number of people with dementia in Norfolk is predicted to increase by around 55% between 2020 and 2040.

Population predictions for the Norfolk districts

POPPI estimates the number of people with dementia (severe and moderate) from 2020 to 2040 in each Norfolk district:

The impact on adult social care in Norfolk

It is estimated that one in 20 people nationally with dementia are aged under 65 years of age.

This will be a key driver of social care demand, primarily in the older people's care market, but also impacts learning disabilities, autism, and mental health services catering for older care users.

It is estimated, using projecting adult needs and service information (PANSI), that in 2020 there were 17,322 adults living in Norfolk who have a learning disability, which is around 2% of the Norfolk population.

Of the 17,322 it is estimated that:

• 12,594 are aged between 18 and 64 years of age
• 4,728 people (27% of adults with a learning disability and 1.8% of the total Norfolk population) are aged 65 years and above
• 4% are 85 years old and over
• 3,491 adults have a moderate to severe learning disability. 629 (18%) are aged 65 years old and above and 2% are aged 85 years old and above.

Population predictions for of adults with learning disabilities in Norfolk

By 2040 it is estimated that:

• 33% of the learning disability population will be aged 65 years and above (highlighting that people with a learning disability are living longer)
• 6% of the learning disability population will be 85 years old and over
• 21% of those with a moderate to severe learning disability will be 65 years old and over
• 3% of those with a moderate to severe learning disability will be 85 years old and over

Not all people with a learning disability will be in receipt of services. People predicted to have a moderate or severe learning disability are more likely to be in receipt of services.

PANSI estimates the number of people with learning disabilities (moderate or severe and down's syndrome) from 2020 to 2040 in Norfolk will be:

2020:

• 3,491 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 324 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 3,579 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 329 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 3,699 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 331 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 3,789 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 333 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 3,840 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 337 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome
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Population predictions for the Norfolk districts

PANSI estimates the number of people with learning disabilities (moderate or severe and down's syndrome) from 2020 to 2040 for each Norfolk district:

Autism

PANSI data provides predictions for the number of people with autism living in Norfolk in 2020 as 5,145 people increasing by 3.7% to 5,335 people by 2040.

It is therefore important that services supporting people with a learning disability and/or mental ill-health have staff trained to have a good understanding of autism and the approaches required to support people well.

The Government has introduced a requirement for care quality commission (CQC) registered service providers to ensure their employees receive mandatory learning disability and autism training, such as the Oliver McGowan training, appropriate to their role. This is to ensure that the health and social care workforce has the right skills and knowledge to provide safe, compassionate, and informed care to autistic people and people with a learning disability. This requirement is set out in the health and care act (2022).

Adults with a learning disability and dementia

People with a learning disability and those with down's syndrome are living longer and are more likely to develop health conditions associated with older age. People with a learning disability are at greater risk of developing dementia as they get older compared with the general population.

Three studies found the following prevalence rates of dementia among people with a learning disability:

• 13% of people over 50 years of age
• 22% of people aged over 65 years of age

For people with down's syndrome, the risk of developing dementia is significant with a higher estimated prevalence rate of:

• 36.1% of people aged 50-59 years old
• 75% for people over 60 years old

These estimations came from the research that is available on the social care institute for excellence website.

It is important that with people living longer, services adapt to be able to meet the needs of people with dementia who also have a learning disability or down's syndrome. We need to grow the number of providers that have the settings and skills to support people with these needs.

Using the 2021 census population data and applying the estimated prevalence of mental health conditions in people aged over 18 indicates that there are around 99,500 people living in Norfolk with common mental health disorders (anxiety and depression).

Previous estimates predict that by 2040 the number of people with common mental health problems will have increased to 101,450.

The prevalence of people with anti-social and borderline personality disorders are the next largest cohort with an estimated prevalence of 17,474 people with anti-social and 12,635 people with borderline personality disorders. The prevalence of people with psychotic disorders is estimated to be 3,675 people.

It is estimated that there are 23,216 people living in Norfolk who are at higher risk of alcohol related health problems and 17,740 people who are dependent on drugs.

Visit our mental health webpage for further information and support for mental health.

Life expectancy

Nationally, life expectancy has continued to improve throughout the past few decades. This has been attributed to:

• Improvements in public health, such as childhood immunisation
• Medical advances in treating diseases, such as heart disease and cancer
• Lifestyle changes, such as a decline in smoking

This improvement has also been observed locally in Norfolk and Waveney. Life expectancy in Norfolk and Waveney has consistently been higher than the national average for both males and females over time.

Decrease in life expectancy

Over the last ten years this improvement had levelled off and, most recently from 2018 to 2020, life expectancy has declined nationally and locally for both males and females. For Norfolk and Waveney, life expectancy fell slightly for males to 79.9 years and for females to 83.8 years.

Life expectancy for people with a learning disability

Although life expectancy is increasing for people with a learning disability, evidence shows that adults with a learning disability will still have a shorter life expectancy than the general public. On average:

• A female with a learning disability will have an 18 year shorter life expectancy than the general population
• A male with a learning disability will have a 14 year shorter life expectancy than the general population

Visit the NHS digital website for further information about life expectancy and these statistics.

Healthy life expectancy

Living a healthy life is as important as living a long life.

'Healthy life expectancy' is the average number of years that a person can expect to live in 'full health'.

Data from the office for health improvement and disparities 2022, shows that between 2018-2022, on average:

• A female in Norfolk would expect to live to approximately 84 years old but have a healthy life expectancy of 63.9 years. This means that a woman spends approximately 24% of her life or 20 years in poor health.
• A male in Norfolk would expect to live to approximately 80 years old but have a healthy life expectancy of 62.9 years. This means that they spend 21% of their total life or 17 years and 1 month in poor health.

Although females live longer than males, they spend a longer amount of their life in poor health. This is in line with what we see nationally.

Cause of death

As we are living longer, the leading causes of death are changing. The death rates from heart disease and stroke, once clearly the most common causes of death, have reduced substantially in the last decade.

At the same time there has been a doubling of the death rate from conditions associated with extreme old age and frailty such as dementia, which is now the leading cause of death in women.

It is increasingly common for people with a long-term condition to have at least one other condition. The number of co-morbidities increases with age, with older people more likely to have several long-term conditions.

For people with a learning disability the main causes of death for adults in England are:

• Circulatory diseases
• Respiratory diseases
• Cancer

People may describe their ethnic group based on their:

• Culture
• Family background
• Identity
• Physical appearance

The 2021 census reports the percentage of people from each, broad ethnic group in Norfolk:

• 2.1% of the population are Asian, Asian British, Asian Welsh
• 0.9% of the population are Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean, African
• 1.6% of the population are multiple or mixed ethic groups
• 0.7% of the population are other ethnic groups
• 94.7% of the population are White

International health and social care staff

The difficulties that the adult social care sector is facing in the recruitment and retention of staff has resulted in more staff being recruited internationally.

The main countries from which staff are currently being recruited from are:

• Nepal
• India
• Sri Lanka
• Kenya
• Malaysia
• Philippines

Support for international staff

It is essential that there is the right support infrastructure in place to ensure that the experiences of people coming to Norfolk from other countries is good. The recent funding allocated to the East of England to support international recruitment will support key initiatives.

Learn more about these initiatives and how we support international staff on the virtual centre of excellence supporting international recruitment webpage

Language

Language is a key defining characteristic of people's identity.

Data on the main languages spoken in an area facilitates the provision of public services. For example, to help identify the need for translation and  interpretation for providing English language lessons.

The 2021 census reports 95% of the Norfolk population confirmed that English was their main spoken language. The proficiency in English for those whom English is not their main language in Norfolk is:

• 2.1% can speak English very well
• 1.9% can speak English well
• 0.9% can't speak English well
• 0.1% can't speak English