Norfolk population
Dementia
Applying the dementia UK report estimates of population prevalence of late on set dementia and applying these to the 2021 population derived from the 2021 census, the number of people aged 60 years and above living in Norfolk with dementia was estimated to be 16,691 during 2021.
Diagnosis rate
In January 2022 NHS digital recorded 9,509 people in Norfolk diagnosed with dementia against an estimated prevalence of 17,104 people which is a diagnosis rate of 55.6%.
Stages of dementia
Research by the Alzheimer's Society (2020) and by Wittenberg (2019) estimate that the proportion of people with mild, moderate, and severe dementia is:
- Mild dementia: 14%
- Moderate dementia: 28%
- Severe dementia: 58%
This would mean that for Norfolk, of the 17,104 people estimated to have dementia in 2022:
- 9,920 people will have severe dementia
- 4,789 people will have moderate dementia
- 2,395 people will have mild dementia
This would suggest that the people diagnosed with dementia in Norfolk are those with severe symptoms.
Population predictions for Norfolk
The projecting older people population information system (POPPI) estimates that the number of people with dementia from 2020 to 2040 in Norfolk will be:
- 2020: 16,321 people with dementia
- 2025: 18, 200 people with dementia
- 2030: 20, 579 people with dementia
- 2035: 23, 073 people with dementia
- 2040: 25,269 people with dementia
This highlights that the number of people with dementia in Norfolk is predicted to increase by around 55% between 2020 and 2040.
Population predictions for the Norfolk districts
POPPI estimates the number of people with dementia (severe and moderate) from 2020 to 2040 in each Norfolk district:
2020:
- 2,580 people with dementia
- 1,496 people with severe dementia
- 722 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 2,906 people with dementia
- 1,685 people with severe dementia
- 814 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 3,320 people with dementia
- 1,926 people with severe dementia
- 930 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 3,752 people with dementia
- 2,176 people with severe dementia
- 1,051 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 4,117 people with dementia
- 2,423 people with severe dementia
- 1,170 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 2,493 people with dementia
- 1,446 people with severe dementia
- 698 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 2,841 people with dementia
- 1,648 people with severe dementia
- 795 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 3,212 people with dementia
- 1,863 people with severe dementia
- 899 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 3,556 people with dementia
- 2,062 people with severe dementia
- 996 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 3,908 people with dementia
- 2,267 people with severe dementia
- 1,094 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 1,721 people with dementia
- 998 people with severe dementia
- 482 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 1,935 people with dementia
- 1,122 people with severe dementia
- 542 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 2,195 people with dementia
- 1,273 people with severe dementia
- 615 people with moderate dementia
2035
- 2,483 people with dementia
- 1,440 people with severe dementia
- 695 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 2,666 people with dementia
- 1,546 people with severe dementia
- 746 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 2,808 people with dementia
- 1,629 people with severe dementia
- 786 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 3,068 people with dementia
- 1,779 people with severe dementia
- 859 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 3,426 people with dementia
- 1,987 people with severe dementia
- 959 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 3,813 people with dementia
- 2,212 people with severe dementia
- 1,068 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 4,082 people with dementia
- 2,368 people with severe dementia
- 1,143 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 2,585 people with dementia
- 1,499 people with severe dementia
- 724 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 2, 845 people with dementia,
- 1,650 people with severe dementia
- 797 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 3,236 people with dementia
- 1,877 people with severe dementia
- 906 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 3,594 people with dementia
- 2,085 people with severe dementia
- 1,006 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 3,948 people with dementia
- 2,290 people with severe dementia
- 1,105 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 1,638 people with dementia
- 950 people with severe dementia
- 459 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 1,731 people with dementia
- 1,004 people with severe dementia
- 485 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 1,893 people with dementia
- 1,098 people with severe dementia
- 530 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 2,131 people with dementia
- 1,236 people with severe dementia
- 597 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 2,335 people with dementia
- 1,354 people with severe dementia
- 654 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 2,496 people with dementia
- 1,448 people with severe dementia
- 699 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 2,874 people with dementia
- 1,667 people with severe dementia
- 805 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 3,297 people with dementia
- 1,912 people with severe dementia
- 923 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 3,744 people with dementia
- 2,172 people with severe dementia
- 1,048 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 4,153 people with dementia
- 2,409 people with severe dementia
- 1,163 people with moderate dementia
2020:
- 16,321 people with dementia
- 9,466 people with severe dementia
- 4,570 people with moderate dementia
2025:
- 18, 200 people with dementia
- 10,556 people with severe dementia
- 5,096 people with moderate dementia
2030:
- 20, 579 people with dementia
- 11,936 people with severe dementia
- 5,762 people with moderate dementia
2035:
- 23, 073 people with dementia
- 13,382 people with severe dementia
- 6,460 people with moderate dementia
2040:
- 25,269 people with dementia
- 14,656 people with severe dementia
- 7,075 people with moderate dementia
The impact on adult social care in Norfolk
It is estimated that one in 20 people nationally with dementia are aged under 65 years of age.
This will be a key driver of social care demand, primarily in the older people's care market, but also impacts learning disabilities, autism, and mental health services catering for older care users.
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