Norfolk population

It is estimated, using projecting adult needs and service information (PANSI), that in 2020 there were 17,322 adults living in Norfolk who have a learning disability, which is around 2% of the Norfolk population.

Of the 17,322 it is estimated that:

• 12,594 are aged between 18 and 64 years of age
• 4,728 people (27% of adults with a learning disability and 1.8% of the total Norfolk population) are aged 65 years and above
• 4% are 85 years old and over
• 3,491 adults have a moderate to severe learning disability. 629 (18%) are aged 65 years old and above and 2% are aged 85 years old and above.

Population predictions for of adults with learning disabilities in Norfolk

By 2040 it is estimated that:

• 33% of the learning disability population will be aged 65 years and above (highlighting that people with a learning disability are living longer)
• 6% of the learning disability population will be 85 years old and over
• 21% of those with a moderate to severe learning disability will be 65 years old and over
• 3% of those with a moderate to severe learning disability will be 85 years old and over

Not all people with a learning disability will be in receipt of services. People predicted to have a moderate or severe learning disability are more likely to be in receipt of services.

PANSI estimates the number of people with learning disabilities (moderate or severe and down's syndrome) from 2020 to 2040 in Norfolk will be:

2020:

• 3,491 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 324 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 3,579 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 329 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 3,699 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 331 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 3,789 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 333 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 3,840 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 337 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome
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Population predictions for the Norfolk districts

PANSI estimates the number of people with learning disabilities (moderate or severe and down's syndrome) from 2020 to 2040 for each Norfolk district:

Breckland

2020:

• 534 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 49 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 550 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 50 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 570 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 51 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 588 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 51 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 599 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 52 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

Broadland

2020:

• 496 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 46 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 511 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 47 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 530 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 47 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 542 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 47 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 552 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 48 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

Great Yarmouth and Waveney

2020:

• 374 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 35 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 378 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 35 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 385 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 391 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 394 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

King's Lynn and West Norfolk

2020:

• 566 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 52 (aged 18-64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 567 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 51 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 575 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 50 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 580 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 50 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 583 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 50 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

North Norfolk

2020:

• 392 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 399 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 410 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 417 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 33 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 424 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 34 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

Norwich

2020:

• 597 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 59 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 608 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 60 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 629 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 61 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 642 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 62 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 644 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 62 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

South Norfolk

2020:

• 532 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 49 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2025:

• 566 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 52 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2030:

• 600 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 54 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2035:

• 626 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 56 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

2040:

• 644 people (over 18 years old) with a moderate or severe learning disability
• 57 people (between 18 and 64 years old) with down's syndrome

Autism

PANSI data provides predictions for the number of people with autism living in Norfolk in 2020 as 5,145 people increasing by 3.7% to 5,335 people by 2040.

It is therefore important that services supporting people with a learning disability and/or mental ill-health have staff trained to have a good understanding of autism and the approaches required to support people well.

The Government has introduced a requirement for care quality commission (CQC) registered service providers to ensure their employees receive mandatory learning disability and autism training, such as the Oliver McGowan training, appropriate to their role. This is to ensure that the health and social care workforce has the right skills and knowledge to provide safe, compassionate, and informed care to autistic people and people with a learning disability. This requirement is set out in the health and care act (2022).

Adults with a learning disability and dementia

People with a learning disability and those with down's syndrome are living longer and are more likely to develop health conditions associated with older age. People with a learning disability are at greater risk of developing dementia as they get older compared with the general population.

Three studies found the following prevalence rates of dementia among people with a learning disability:

• 13% of people over 50 years of age
• 22% of people aged over 65 years of age

For people with down's syndrome, the risk of developing dementia is significant with a higher estimated prevalence rate of:

• 36.1% of people aged 50-59 years old
• 75% for people over 60 years old

These estimations came from the research that is available on the social care institute for excellence website.

It is important that with people living longer, services adapt to be able to meet the needs of people with dementia who also have a learning disability or down's syndrome. We need to grow the number of providers that have the settings and skills to support people with these needs.